Brazil’s Coffee Balance: Robusta Stepping Up as Arabica Slips
Brazil’s coffee landscape is shifting—and the numbers tell a story of resilience and adaptation. The 2025/26 harvest is projected at 63 million bags, a 3% drop from the previous season, driven by harsh weather crippling Arabica yields. States like Minas Gerais and São Paulo, key Arabica hubs, faced below-average rainfall and heatwaves that stunted growth. Meanwhile, Robusta is breaking records, hitting 25 million bags—a 19% surge from 2024/25. Favorable conditions in Espírito Santo and Bahia, paired with years of farmer investment, are fueling this shift. The export picture is equally turbulent. U.S. tariffs, peaking at 50% in August, slashed shipments…



