Consider this your morning briefing: Indonesia’s coffee industry is in the midst of a quiet revolution. Robusta production is surging, fueled by weather recovery and aggressive export strategies, while global demand for the bean continues to outpace supply. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects Indonesia’s output will hit 12.5 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2025/26 market year, a 18% jump from the previous cycle. This isn’t just numbers—it’s a seismic shift in the global coffee landscape.
The rebound is most visible in lowland robusta regions of southern Sumatra, where Lampung, Bengkulu, and South Sumatra have seen trees recover faster than expected from a 2023/24 weather shock. Better rainfall, consistent pruning, and increased input use have turned these areas into hotspots. Meanwhile, green coffee exports are forecast at 7.8 million bags, up 27% from last year, driven by a weaker rupiah and Europe’s insatiable appetite for robusta. Indonesia now dominates European markets, with 85% of its shipments to the region being robusta.
The U.S. remains a major buyer, though its share of Indonesia’s exports has dipped to 9% from 12% in 2024/25. Reciprocal tariffs imposed in August 2025 slowed shipments, but their removal has already sparked a recovery. Other key markets—Egypt, Belgium, Malaysia, Vietnam, Russia, Japan, and Germany—account for two-thirds of Indonesia’s exports. Domestic consumption is holding steady at 4.81 million bags, but higher prices and weak purchasing power are pushing consumers toward cheaper blends. Street vendors and mobile carts are now the backbone of growth, outpacing demand for premium products.
The key takeaway? Robusta isn’t just filling a gap—it’s rewriting the rules. Indonesia’s ability to scale robusta production, paired with strategic exports and evolving consumer habits, positions it as a dominant force. Yet, the market’s volatility—ranging from weather shocks to trade policies—reminds us that this isn’t a trend but a tightrope walk.
How will the balance between robusta dominance and arabica resilience shift in the coming years.
What’s next for Indonesia’s coffee industry? How will the balance between robusta dominance and arabica resilience shift in the coming years? Weigh in below.
Questions & Answers
What drives Robusta coffee demand in Indonesia?
Robusta demand rises due to its lower cost and higher yield, appealing to budget-conscious consumers and large-scale buyers seeking affordable bulk coffee.
How is Indonesia positioning itself in the global coffee market?
Indonesia is leveraging its Robusta production, focusing on quality improvements and export strategies to capture a larger share of the global coffee market.
Information sourced from industry reports and news outlets.
