Brazil’s coffee landscape is shifting—and the numbers tell a story of resilience and adaptation. The 2025/26 harvest is projected at 63 million bags, a 3% drop from the previous season, driven by harsh weather crippling Arabica yields. States like Minas Gerais and São Paulo, key Arabica hubs, faced below-average rainfall and heatwaves that stunted growth. Meanwhile, Robusta is breaking records, hitting 25 million bags—a 19% surge from 2024/25. Favorable conditions in Espírito Santo and Bahia, paired with years of farmer investment, are fueling this shift.
The export picture is equally turbulent. U.S. tariffs, peaking at 50% in August, slashed shipments to America, now down 25% year-on-year. Yet, revenue is climbing as global prices stay high and Robusta demand surges. Brazil’s ending stocks? A mere 485,000 bags, a fraction of historical norms. This scarcity amplifies the country’s vulnerability, as weather reports in Brazil now sway global markets like a pendulum.
The data reveals deeper tensions. Brazil’s official agencies, like CONAB and IBGE, forecast lower totals than USDA’s FAS, highlighting methodological differences. Export volumes fell 20.5% in the first nine months of 2025, yet revenue jumped 30% to $11.05 billion. U.S. imports, once Brazil’s top buyer, now lag behind Germany and Italy. Domestic prices have skyrocketed too: Arabica hit a 50% spike in September, while Robusta prices flirted with historic highs.
The takeaway? Brazil’s coffee world is rewriting itself. Arabica’s decline isn’t just a statistical blip—it’s a signal of climate stress. Robusta’s rise offers a lifeline, but at what cost? With stocks near historic lows, Brazil’s coffee future hinges on balancing supply shocks with global demand.
How will Brazil navigate its coffee future with such a tight stock buffer.
How will Brazil navigate its coffee future with such a tight stock buffer?
Questions & Answers
Is Robusta replacing Arabica in Brazil’s coffee market?
Yes, Robusta is filling the gap due to lower Arabica output. Brazil is shifting focus to Robusta to meet demand.
What factors are affecting Arabica coffee in Brazil?
Drought, pests, and climate change are reducing Arabica yields. This has led to increased Robusta production to compensate.
Information sourced from industry reports and news outlets.
