The future of coffee is at risk due to rampant deforestation in Brazil, and we need to take action now. Etelle Higonnet, Director of Coffee Watch, explains the extent of the problem and how the industry can pave a better path forward.
The Deforestation-Drought Connection Reshaping Coffee Country Satellite data reveals that between 2001 and 2023, Brazil lost over 11 million hectares of forest, with at least 312,803 hectares directly cleared for coffee cultivation. This deforestation is not just an environmental disaster—it’s also causing economic turmoil.
“Coffee has driven massive deforestation in Brazil, especially in the last few decades, and it is still destroying forests to this day,” says Higonnet. “Brazil needs to reverse course urgently because this deforestation is not just a carbon and biodiversity disaster—it is also killing rains and leading to crop failures.”
The connection between deforestation and droughts is clear: forests regulate rainfall patterns, and their destruction disrupts the water cycles that coffee depends on. In 2014, rainfall fell up to 50% below normal in parts of Minas Gerais, Brazil’s leading coffee-producing region, and 8 of the last 10 years registered deficits.
The droughts, in turn, cause crop failures, including in coffee,” Higonnet explains succinctly.
“Destroying the forests is killing the rains, which hurts soil moisture. The droughts, in turn, cause crop failures, including in coffee,” Higonnet explains succinctly.
When Soil Loses Its Memory NASA SMAP data reveals that over six years, soil moisture declines up to 25% in top coffee-producing zones. These changes represent fundamental shifts in the landscape’s capacity to sustain agriculture. The economic consequences are mounting: landmark droughts in 2016–17, 2019–20, and 2023 slashed yields and contributed to over 40% price rises in 2023–24. Climate modeling predicts that up to two-thirds of Brazil’s suitable Arabica area could be lost by 2050.
The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) adds urgency to the crisis. “Some deforestation we found is after the EUDR cutoff date,” Higonnet says, highlighting risks for exporters who haven’t ensured traceability in their supply chains.
A Solution Hiding in Plain Sight Perhaps the most frustrating revelation: We already know how to fix this. Agroforestry zones showed greater moisture stability even during droughts—yet less than 1% of Brazil’s key coffee zones use agroforestry today. “Half of global coffee will vanish by 2050 unless we course correct, transition to agroforestry at scale, and reforest wherever possible,” Higonnet says.
For Brazil specifically, Higonnet outlined immediate action steps: “Brazil can immediately study deforestation for coffee closely, crack down on it wherever possible, help all its coffee farmers to transition to agroforestry, and regreen and reforest all around coffee wherever possible to try to stabilize the rains and soil moisture.
Charting a Better Path Forward The report’s methodology—combining satellite imagery from CHIRPS, NASA SMAP soil moisture readings, and land use data from MapBiomas, Hansen, and SPAM—provides unprecedented clarity on coffee’s environmental footprint. For Brazil specifically, Higonnet outlined immediate action steps: “Brazil can immediately study deforestation for coffee closely, crack down on it wherever possible, help all its coffee farmers to transition to agroforestry, and regreen and reforest all around coffee wherever possible to try to stabilize the rains and soil moisture.”
A Global Wake-Up Call While this report focuses on Brazil, the implications extend worldwide. “What we found in Brazil is true for most other coffee-producing countries,” Higonnet says. “They have serious historical and current deforestation problems. And the deforestation for coffee was so widespread that it has affected rainfall and soil moisture, which is jeopardizing coffee’s future.”
The path forward requires collective action: transparent monitoring, zero-deforestation commitments, investment in agroforestry, and support for restoration projects. The coffee industry stands at a crossroads: Embrace regenerative practices, or watch the industry’s foundation crumble beneath changing climate realities. The choice isn’t between forests and coffee anymore. It is about recognizing that, without forests, there will be no coffee to save.
CLOSE (1 engaging question for comments): What actions do you think the coffee industry should take to combat deforestation and secure a sustainable future for coffee? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
Questions & Answers
What is the primary cause of threat to future coffee production in Brazil?
Deforestation, primarily due to agricultural expansion and logging activities.
How does deforestation impact coffee production in Brazil?
It destroys natural habitats, degrades soil quality, and disrupts water cycles essential for coffee cultivation.
Information sourced from industry reports and news outlets.
