Coffee Prices Set To Climb As 2025/26 Deficit Looms

Time to spill: Coffee prices are about to hit a new high. The USDA just warned of a global deficit in 2025/26, and Brazil’s coffee exports are already tanking. With tariffs chewing 50% off US shipments and port delays costing R$8.7m in October alone, the writing’s on the wall. This isn’t just another market hiccup—it’s a full-blown crisis for growers and roasters alike.

The numbers don’t lie. Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, saw exports drop 21% in the first half of 2025. That’s not a typo—it’s a 21% plunge. Cecafé’s data shows the pain is real, and it’s not just about weather or pests. Tariffs are strangling supply chains, while logistical nightmares are turning beans into a luxury item. Retailers? They’re already bracing for sticker shock. illycaffè’s latest price hike—its third this year—signals the trend. The Italian brand isn’t just reacting to costs; it’s forecasting a C price range of $2.80–$3/lb by mid-2026, a full 30% above the five-year average.

This isn’t a short-term blip. The volatility that defined 2025 will bleed into 2026, with no clear exit strategy in sight. Growers in Brazil and Colombia are scrambling to secure contracts, while roasters face a brutal choice: absorb rising costs or pass them to consumers. The market’s shifting fast, and the only thing more certain than the deficit is the climb in prices.

Key points: The USDA’s 2025/26 deficit forecast is a clear signal that coffee prices will keep climbing. Tariffs and port delays are the twin engines driving this crisis, squeezing both producers and retailers. Meanwhile, the C price’s projected stabilization at $2.80–$3/lb underscores a new reality: coffee is no longer a commodity—it’s a luxury.